Building and infrastructure collapses and failures triggered
by earthquakes kill, on average, about 20,000 people every year. Historically,
seismic building codes and design specifications have established minimum
requirements for life safety and prevention of collapse. In seismically active
regions, earthquakes can be considered reoccurring events, with severity states
between serviceability and ultimate levels.
If we compare a strong earthquake with other highly
destructive events arising from climate change, what can we learn from seismic
engineering approaches in the development of resilient and flexible designs as
will indeed be needed in response to future heavily impacting climatic events?
This lecture will introduce the concept of adaptive design
for geotechnics and explore situations where such an approach can be used based
on the best practice design aspects from seismic engineering. A new balance
must be found when designing for future extreme events – between conventional
efficient (non-conservative) singular design and added adaptive design elements
to accommodate future seismic/ climatic events.
There is new guidance from a few regulators highlighting the
need to identify adaptation solutions (where possible) that will perform well
in the current situation and in defined future scenarios. Project examples from
around the world will show that reducing seismic vulnerability with
understanding of the design drivers and performance-based matrix, can lead to
adopting adaptive solutions. A new framework will need to consider the future
conditions, functional life, balancing longevity, adaptability, and optimising
material use with the carbon counting tools for design scenarios in both
seismic and non-seismic situations.
This John Mitchell lecture looks at some aspects of the best
current seismic engineering practice and how these might inform the development
of Adaptive Design in the broader field of routine engineering. This can
trigger a long journey for an industry-led transition from singular prescribed
design to suitably adaptive design.